China may never overtake US economy as per new forecast


New Delhi: Before the Corona epidemic, China’s economy was going downhill. For more than two decades, China had remained the factory of the world. The whole world was covered with Chinese goods. It was believed that by the beginning of the next decade, China would become the world’s largest economy by overtaking America. But in an instant everything was shattered. China’s economy is struggling on every front. Exports have fallen, services PMI has hit an eight-month low, real estate is in tatters, unemployment is at its peak, consumption is shrinking by the day, foreign companies and investors have started turning away. The condition has become such that President Xi Jinping has to hide his face. Recently, he was cut off from speaking on the economy in the BRICS conference and now he is not even coming to the meeting of G-20 countries.

According to Bloomberg Economics, China will now have to wait till the mid-2040s to overtake the US. Even then he can overtake by a small margin and then America will overtake him. Bloomberg economists believe that China’s economy has slowed down earlier than expected. The boom that was visible after Corona has derailed. The real estate sector is in deep trouble and the economy is slipping away from the leadership. People’s trust in the government is decreasing with each passing day. Due to this, the chances of growth getting back on track are getting bleak. Economists predict that China’s economy will grow by 3.5 percent in 2030 and slip to around 1 percent in 2050. Earlier it was estimated to be 4.3 percent by 2030 and 1.6 percent by 2050.

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china vs america

Last year, China’s economy grew by three percent, which is the lowest in many decades. America and G-7 countries are keeping a close watch on this condition of China. They are seeing this as an opportunity. Apart from the economy, China is also facing challenges on many other fronts. Its population declined last year for the first time since the 1960s. The government’s action on companies has also reduced the world’s trust in China. At the same time, China’s tension with America and Western countries is at its peak.

On the other hand, America is looking in a better position today. A strong labor market, an uptick in consumer spending and a decline in inflation have restored confidence in the country’s economy. Till a few months ago, America was being predicted to be stuck in recession, but at present, America’s economy has come out of that situation. According to Bloomberg economists, the US economy is expected to grow at a rate of 1.7 percent in 2022-23 and by 2050 this growth could be 1.5 percent.

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