Some countries of the world may face recession in the year 2024, this is the assessment of some international financial institutions. But, amidst the possibilities of collapse of the economy at the global level, there is one country on which the eyes of all the international financial institutions, especially the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, are fixed, that is India. All foreign financial institutions are optimistic about the Indian economy that now only India has the capacity to support the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund has recently released a report. In this mainly three things have been said about India. First, India is the fastest growing economy in the world today. Secondly, India’s GDP will achieve a growth rate of 6.3 percent. Third, India’s contribution to the global GDP is going to be 16 percent in the year 2024. India is ready to contribute as an engine for the development of the entire world economy in the times to come.
India has achieved an attractive growth rate in the year 2023 even amidst the declining growth rate in the world. Because, the Government of India has continuously taken many major decisions in the last few years, especially in the economic sector, the impact of which is now clearly visible on the Indian economy. Firstly, India has digitized economic transactions and has shown the way to the entire world in this field. Due to this, not only the efficiency of economic transactions has increased but the cost has also reduced considerably. Secondly, the central government has made huge capital expenditure to develop infrastructure in the country. An amount of Rs 7.50 lakh crore was spent on this item in the financial year 2022-23 and an amount of Rs 10 lakh crore is being spent on this item in the financial year 2023-24. A capital expenditure of US$ 12,000 crore has been planned in the coming times on the development of roads, railways and health services in India. Between 2017 and 2023, a capital expenditure of Rs 70 lakh crore was made for the development of infrastructure, but between 2024 and 2030, a capital expenditure of Rs 143 lakh crore is being planned. Thirdly, the central government in India has tried its best to provide financial assistance through various schemes to the citizens living below the poverty line, which has resulted in a huge reduction in the number of this category. And now, by joining the category of middle class, this class is playing the role of helping in increasing the demand for products in India, due to which there is a huge increase in the production of various goods in the country itself.
Similarly, the world’s largest office complex has been constructed in Surat city of Gujarat state in India. Offices of more than 4,500 diamond traders have been established in this office complex. In this complex, offices of rough diamond traders and companies selling Polish diamonds will be established at one place. This complex by the name of Surat Diamond Bourse Building, which is spread over an area of more than 67 lakh square feet, was inaugurated by the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi in the month of December 2024. This complex is bigger than the headquarters building of the Pentagon, the US Department of Defense. Till date, the Pentagon’s headquarters has been considered the largest building in the world. Many such business centers are developing in India.
Other countries of the world have been continuously struggling with the problem of inflation for the last few years but India has succeeded in controlling this problem also. The retail inflation rate in India was 7.44 percent in July 2023, which has come down to 4.87 percent in October 2023. Now, soon the Reserve Bank of India can announce a reduction in the repo rate, due to which the interest rates in the country will start reducing, this will definitely create a possibility of further growth in the economy.
If the Indian economy faces any problem in the future, it will not be an internal problem but will be due to a global problem. Because, there are possibilities of recession in some countries, including developed countries. Secondly, Russia-Ukraine war, Hamas-Israel war, China’s tension with its neighboring countries, mutual disputes between European countries, are some of the points which can adversely affect India’s growth rate. If the economies of some developed countries are affected due to all these reasons, then the export of various products from India will also reduce, the cost of imported goods will increase, such problems may arise which will trouble India in the future. . Secondly, some natural reasons like monsoon not coming on time or less rainfall can also cause problems for the Indian economy. Otherwise, the last 10 years should be called the golden period for the Indian economy and the Indian economy is ready to touch new heights in the coming few years. For example, this is going to be the first time in history that the Indian stock market has been providing profitable conditions to investors for 8 consecutive years from the year 2016 to the year 2023. Secondly, after the collapse of the American financial institution Lehman Brothers in 2008, India’s Nifty and China’s Shanghai Stock Market were at 3000 points, but today India’s Nifty has reached above 21800 points and China’s Shanghai Stock Market is still at 3000. It remains intact on the marks only. Investors from almost all the countries have expressed great confidence in the Indian stock market today and today India’s foreign exchange reserves have crossed the level of 60,000 crore US dollars.
Retired Deputy General Manager,
state Bank of India