Why are Muslim dominated seats becoming the first choice of opposition leaders in Uttar Pradesh?

The graph of Bharatiya Janata Party is continuously going up in Uttar Pradesh. BJP’s victory in election after election in UP is a big example of this. BJP has not lost any major election in UP in the last ten years. Due to this, there is a lot of fighting for BJP tickets. Only BJP seems to have the possibility of contesting the general elections in UP and winning easily. The opposite is true for candidates from other parties. Leaving aside other leaders of non-BJP parties, it is not easy for even the party stalwarts to contest and win elections from here. Due to this, many leaders have distanced themselves from UP, including veteran Congress leaders like Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi left his family’s traditional Amethi Lok Sabha election and went to contest from the Muslim-dominated Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in Kerala. Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal, who came to challenge Modi from Varanasi Lok Sabha seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, has also turned his back on UP after the crushing defeat in Varanasi. BJP is so weak in Uttar Pradesh that even Priyanka Vadra Gandhi is not able to muster the courage to contest elections from here, while Congress is continuously giving the excuse to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to contest the elections from Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat, which is the safest for the Gandhi family. It is being said that Rae Bareli’s current MP Sonia Gandhi does not want to contest the Lok Sabha elections due to health reasons. Rae Bareli is considered the invincible fort of the Gandhi family. Congress is ready to risk everything to save the only remaining seat of Uttar Pradesh in the great battle of 2024. After losing Amethi in the last elections, the party does not want to take any risk regarding Rae Bareli this time. Sonia Gandhi, who has been winning elections for five consecutive times, is not very active this time due to health reasons. At the same time, after winning Amethi, BJP is now preparing to blossom in Rae Bareli also.

Regarding the possibility of Priyanka contesting the Lok Sabha elections, MP representative Kishori Lal Sharma said that it is too early to say anything. Yes, there is no doubt that a member of the Gandhi family will contest elections from Rae Bareli. District Congress President Pankaj Tiwari said that there is every possibility that this time only Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will contest from Rae Bareli. The reshuffle in the Congress organization before the Lok Sabha elections 2024 is also giving a big signal regarding Rae Bareli. The alliance strategy of Congress in the state regarding the Lok Sabha elections may not be clear yet, but it is almost certain that the party general secretary and former state in-charge Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will contest the elections from Rae Bareli, but due to Modi magic, Rae Bareli is also no longer safe for the Congress. is left. The condition of Congress veterans is more or less the same as that of Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav. He is also looking for a Muslim dominated seat for himself, so that there is no obstacle in the way of victory. For this, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is finding Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat quite suitable. Although the seats have not yet been distributed among the allies of the Indi alliance for the Lok Sabha elections, the Samajwadi Party has almost finalized its potential candidates for about one and a half dozen seats along with Akhilesh.

As soon as the news that SP President Akhilesh Yadav can contest elections from Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat once again came into discussion, the excitement there has intensified. Let us tell you that earlier Akhilesh was preparing to contest elections from Kannauj, but Akhilesh did not feel like going there. Due to this, he is now planning to contest elections from Muslim and Yadav dominated Azamgarh seat. He was also elected MP from the same place in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but later he resigned from the Lok Sabha membership and contested the Legislative Assembly elections and after winning, now Akhilesh is a member of the Legislative Assembly and the Leader of Opposition. Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat has always been stronger for SP. Here, despite the Modi wave, SP had won in the elections of 2014 and 2019. Mulayam Singh Yadav won the elections in 2014 and Akhilesh Yadav won in 2019. In the by-election held after Akhilesh’s resignation, BJP won the election from here and Samajwadi Party candidate came third while BSP candidate came second. After winning the 2022 assembly elections from Karhal, Akhilesh had resigned from Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat, after which Akhilesh fielded his cousin Dharmendra Yadav in the by-election on the vacant seat, but he had to be content with the third position. . BJP had given ticket to Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua here. The third candidate, Guddu Jamali of BSP was in the fray. There was fragmentation of Muslim votes in the triangular fight and this became the reason for SP’s defeat.

According to political experts, Akhilesh can contest elections from here to save the divide among his core voters Yadav-Muslim. Akhilesh is also preparing to contest elections from Kannauj, but the political equations of Azamgarh seem more secure to him. All five MLAs here belong to SP. Akhilesh’s wife Dimple Yadav had lost the last Lok Sabha election from Kannauj. With this, SP has so far finalized the names of about one and a half dozen potential candidates. Dimple Yadav will once again take over the political legacy of her father-in-law Mulayam Singh Yadav from Mainpuri, while SP national spokesperson Rajeev Rai can contest from Ghosi. Similarly, in the names of State President Naresh Uttam Patel from Fatehpur, Dr. Naval Kishore Shakya from Farrukhabad, Dharmendra Yadav from Badaun, Akshay Yadav from Firozabad, Lalji Verma from Ambedkar Nagar, Awadhesh Prasad from Faizabad, Inderjit Saroj from Kaushambi, Anu Tandon from Unnao. Consensus has been reached. Similarly, the tickets of sitting MP ST Hasan from Moradabad, Ram Pratap Chaudhary from Basti, Kajal Nishad from Gorakhpur, Afzal Ansari from Ghazipur and Ramashankar Vidyarthi from Salempur are almost confirmed.

Actually, Samajwadi Party wants to suppress the weak vein of BJP in Purvanchal. The reason for this is clear. The Bharatiya Janata Party had won a massive victory across the country in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Even after this, the party’s performance was not very good in a dozen seats of Varanasi, Mirzapur and Azamgarh divisions of Purvanchal. BJP had lost Azamgarh, Lalganj, Ghazipur, Jaunpur seats, while at the same time it had won many seats by small margins. After this, the equations of some seats have changed after the assembly elections 2022. Bhadohi is also one of these seats. Now if the Indi alliance becomes firm then the votes of Samajwadi Party, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party together can create problems for the BJP.

Well, this is one side of the coin, it cannot be ruled out that when non-BJP parties unite for Muslim votes, the reaction may be polarization of Hindu voters as well. If this happens, BJP’s path will become easier than in 2019. Keeping this in mind, on one hand the non-BJP parties are trying to woo the Muslims and on the other hand they are proving themselves to be Ram devotees, for this they are doing everything that can influence the Hindu voters. . Along with this, a conspiracy is also taking place to create division among Hindus in the name of casteism by any means. The forward, backward and Dalits should be made to fight among themselves, that is why Akhilesh Yadav is trying to bring the backward, Dalit and minorities under one umbrella. Leaders who abused the elders, Swami Prasad Maurya and Azad Party’s Chandrashekhar alias Ravana etc. are being embraced.

-Ajay Kumar

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